There's a Way Out of a South China Sea Meltdown

President Joe Biden has accomplished the unthinkable. Following a Camp David summit earlier this month, South Korea, Japan, and the United States have joined a ground-breaking trilateral agreement to protect the interests of the nations in the Pacific region.

But Biden's attempt at uniting two notoriously unfriendly global powers is ultimately destined to fail without the support of Southeast Asian nations who are crucial to combatting increasingly nefarious threats in the South China Sea.

These nations, most of which are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations group, could benefit from a similar U.S.-led alliance, but leaders like Biden are overlooking their crucial role in maintaining security throughout the region. Case in point: Biden has no plans to attend ASEAN summits even though he will be on the continent for the G20 in September.

This is a costly mistake.

It was revealed recently that China has been again building airstrips on disputed territory in the South China Sea. This move is the latest in a series of artificial islands to be converted into Chinese military installations.

But China's assertion it owns 90 percent of the South China Sea, or every piece of ocean within its "nine dash line"—a claim rejected by The Hague in 2016—has led to worsening relations between China and ASEAN nations in recent years. But now, tensions are reaching a boiling point: in the past weeks a series of military drills has been carried out by several countries, indicating that neither China nor its adversaries are willing to back down.

That's because it's not just Taiwan that is facing pressure from China. No consensus exists among countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, and Vietnam regarding rightful ownership of the economically crucial, resource rich, maritime passageway—leaving all vulnerable to Chinese assault.

Only recently, the Chinese coastguard attacked Filipino supply vessels en route to replenish one of their outposts within the contested Spratly Islands. China has also recently displayed assertiveness by entering Malaysia's airspace and harassing Vietnamese vessels. These are both members of the ASEAN group that challenge China's assertion of complete dominance over the South China Sea.

And concerns of these tensions breaking into conflict must be taken seriously. In 1974 China invaded and seized the Paracel Islands from Vietnam, leaving more than 70 Vietnamese troops dead. In 1988 China again attacked Vietnam in the Spratly Islands, killing 60 sailors and leaving Vietnam with no illusions as to how far China is willing to go to enforce their "nine-dash line" claim.

But as much as a NATO-style military alliance between ASEAN nations and vested Western powers is vital, it won't be enough to diffuse this brewing conflict by itself.

China employs a bilateral strategy to divide and isolate nations, forcing them to abandon contested territory through economic and military pressure. But economic clout is still where China wields the most influence—a reality that could become even more important if China's goal to expand BRICS and rival the G7 succeeds.

To counter this, Western leaders must entice ASEAN to set aside inter-member disputes and unite against China's divisive tactics. That means engaging countries who are divided by bitter disputes that have hindered the formation of crucial alliances.

For example, geopolitical relations between the Philippines and Malaysia were dangerously eroded due to a legal dispute in which the heirs of a colonial-era sultanate in the Philippines sued the Malaysian government over a $15 billion claim to its oil and gas resources.

This wreaked havoc on Malaysia's public finances and became a diplomatic tightrope for Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the new President of the Philippines, to walk. That undermined unity within ASEAN.

There are plenty of other examples.

Ultimately, amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea, ASEAN countries situated on the frontlines of China's coercive intimidation campaign must set aside minor disagreements that jeopardize essential partnerships. This necessitates high-level diplomacy, like Biden has engaged in with Japan and South Korea, to settle disputes and present a unified front against China's pursuit of regional dominance.

But it also means countries like the U.S. putting their money where their mouths are and finally cementing economic trade deals and military alliances, which have been hanging in the balance for years. China is still ASEAN's largest trading partner, meaning that it will be near impossible to get them on side without stronger and more robust trade agreements.

Ultimately, while Japan and South Korea's support is crucial to rein in China and North Korea, without the support of other ASEAN nations, one of Biden's greatest diplomatic accomplishments is destined to fail.

Dr. Maurizio Geri is a former NATO analyst. He was also previously an analyst for the Italian Defense General Staff and has 20 years of experience in research and civilian operations on peace and security, international order, democratization, human rights, and collective defense.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.